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Is signability a concern? E-mail
Written by Pat Lackey   
Friday, 29 May 2009 09:43

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For the second time this week at BP, it's suggested that the Pirates might go a little cheap with their first round pick in order to have enough money to sign Miguel Sano (this time Kevin Goldstein suggests as much in a chat, if you're not a BP subscriber and can't see the link). I'm pretty sure the Pirates are suggesting the same thing here, but I really can't wade through the Littlefield-esque language to figure out what Huntington means.

"We're not going to walk away from a guy because of his agent or financial demands only, and it's going to be a long summer," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said this week, amid preparations for the draft. "Some guys you evaluate at X, and they want X times 7, and other guys you evaluate at X, and they want X times 2. All else being equal, you go with X times 2."

It seems to me that that's what you say when you're planning on drafting a guy at least partially based on the ability to sign him.

So what does this mean, exactly? Some quick back of the envelope math says the Pirates spent about $10 million between Latin America and the draft last year; their draft hit slightly above $9 million and I don't think their Dominican and Venezuelan signings totaled up to more than $1 million (correct me if I'm wrong here). A huge chunk of that was Pedro Alvarez, who signed for about $6 million after all the legal wrangling was wrapped up, meaning the Pirates spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $3 million on other draft picks last year.

Now, let's assume that with the fourth pick, the Pirates take Aaron Crow, who refused to sign with the Nats last year for slot money for the ninth pick ($2.15 million) and supposedly turned down an offer from the Nationals for $3.5 million, supposedly about a million less than Crow wanted. By contrast, last year's fourth overall pick, Brian Matusz, received about a $3.2 million signing bonus and pro contract, which (I think) is slightly above slot. We're all familiar with the two players taken in the four-slot the two years prior to Matusz; Danny Moskos signed for $2.5 million and Brad Lincoln signed for $2.75 million.

If we assume that picking someone like Crow, Alex White, Grant Green, or Donovan Tate (the best high school outfield prospect who also has an offer from Butch Davis to come play football in Chapel Hill) will cost $4 million or more, while drafting someone like Kyle Gibson could cost $3 million, do the Pirates make that move? I feel like that's what Huntington's setting us up for with that quote, taking a player that's rated slightly lower and saying they valued him the same as the guys who were left on the board.

Of course, there's not really any consensus at all on who the best prospects are after Strasburg and Ackley, so it'd be really hard to know that the Pirates were doing something like that. If we assume the Pirates' budget is roughly the same as last year's and we budget $4 million for Sano (and the bidding could go above that), the Pirates could have a lot less money to spend on low-round picks this year. The million dollars they could save on a first round pick could go towards signing another Quinton Miller in a late round.

Is that an acceptable path? We can certainly argue with capping the draft/Latin America budget, if that is indeed what happens. Why can't they spend a little more? Where else is the money being spent? And what happens if they do go cheap on the draft in June, only to watch Sano sign with someone else in July? That would certainly be a nightmare, both for the front office and the PR staff.

Of course, the key to remember is that we don't know what the Pirates are planning on doing right now. Since Littlefield's firing, Huntington, Coonelly, and their team have handled all of these kinds of situations properly, so why are we expecting them to screw things up now?


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Comments (18)add comment

GPT said:

...
Like you said, because there is such a lack of consensus after the top 2 picks, there is no way to know if the Pirates are duffing off the #4 pick in order to save money for Sano's offer. I've seen maybe 8 different names listed as the #4 pick, from Matzek to Crow to Green to Gibson. There doesn't appear to be an instance of signing a $2.5 million player instead of a $6 million player (who shall of course remain nameless).
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Jake said:

...
My take was that, with this being a weak draft, the Pirates expect to pay weak draft money. Munoz signed basically at slot last year, so that kind of throws things off with what I'm trying to say here. But...

The person they pick at 4 this year will not be as good as Munoz, and I say this based on this being a weak draft. (We all know the long run will tell us differently.) So, the player they draft will not be as highly validated. But, if someone ahead of time is claiming they should get the same money if drafted in the same location, they may want to stay away from him.

Also, I don't thing the value of X is the same between the player who's asking for X * 7 and the player asking for X * 2. Each player has his own X. It's possible that the player asking for x * 2 could be asking for more money.

Look at it like this: Alvarez was the X * 2, Sheppers was the X* 7 player. Who got the money?
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

a guest said:

...
I think the notion that there is a lack of consensus as to the pecking order after Strasburg and Ackley is a very salient point here; likewise, I don't have a problem with signability being an issue as opposed to being THE issue. If Aaron Crow wants a firm 4.5 mil for the fourth spot, can he be the pick? I'd also think that if the Bucs sign Sano and he turns out to be all some scouts say he is, we may all forget who was drafted 1st anyway.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

azibuck said:

...
The value of X is the same. X=X. X is a dollar amount. NH is saying if the Pirates value Crow at $2M and Servo at $2M, money will be a factor IF Crow values himself at 2X and Servo values himself at 7X.

Servo may = Tate here. Tate may fancy himself as another Bo Jackson, and actually ask for $14M (7x).
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Cory said:

...
I consider any speech that makes me go back to my high school algebra book too smart for it's own good... I woulda been happy with him just coming out and saying "We're hoping to spend less on our first rounder so we can have a shot to sign Sano".
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Deaner said:

when AVS comes back to the burgh
Do you think there's any possibility that AVS will see people in the shirts and come over for autographs?

I never got the chance to get his autograph when he was with the Pirates and I'd really like to. I've been to several Tigers games and tried to call him over but to no avail. Maybe if I had some boobs or something...

Leyland, however, has been very hospitable and willing to sign autographs when I show up with a Pirates hat at Tigers games. I've talked with him for a few minutes on a couple of occassions.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

bwzimmerman said:

...
i see what you did there, with the names. Gypsy feels left out.

and by Gypsy, i mean Moskos.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Marc said:

...
Jim Tracy is managing again... Let that sink in.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Deaner said:

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Yeah... Clint Hurdle is the latest manager to take the fall for cheap owners of a poorly run organization... Tracy will fit right in.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Tommy said:

...
A little off-topic, but searching "Littlefield-esque" gets 194 results on Google... the word might as well be in the dictionary.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

BigE said:

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The PBC just dumped eight front office types, but the only one noted was Coonelly's secretary. THAT ought to free up enough money to sign Sano!

 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

SteelCity G said:

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Everything I've read has stated that their are 2 separate pools for the draft and the Dominican and that one has nothing to do with the other. I don't like drafting the cheaper guy one bit. If we had a lot of talent in the minors then whatever but when our talent is as shallow as ours we need to be drafting the best player no matter what the price. And it also would make me think last year was an anomaly and just for PR and once again they are cheapskates, draft the best player on the board and sign Sano no matter the cost of either if your serious about turning this team around.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Lazo V said:

PICK THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF MONEY
I think the Pirates need to pick the TOP guy on their board that is available, regardless of MONEY!

"Oh, easier said than done...this is the Pirates" - Don't be dumb. If we pick Crow and he wants $4.5m and we don't want to pay that...then next year we have pick 4A AND our regular pick, and hopefully sign Sano! Perhaps then we can throw some money at our 4th through 15th round "reach" picks (think Robbie Grossman for $1m) and make this look like a great play for the front office!

But this ALLLLLL hinges on signing Sano. He's this year's first round pick for the Pirates, inside or outside the draft.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Deaner said:

...
If the Bucs picked the best in 2007, all eyes would be on Pittsburgh tonight.
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

Marc said:

...
And here I thought we could go without mentioning him...
 
May 29, 2009
Votes: +0

greg said:

...
How do you lose with the likes of a Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe, Ian Stewart and so on in your line-up? Good God, I'd give a decent player to have Helton at 1B-that bat would be nice in Pittsburgh. Wait-he'll end up there when he's wrapping up his career at 40+ years old.
 
May 30, 2009
Votes: +0

Philip said:

...
Maybe they should start Ian Stewart alot more regularly then they do. Either that or trade him to someone who will.
 
May 30, 2009
Votes: +0

runner said:

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Any chance they don't want to sign the fourth pick, use the money to sign a bunch of later round picks and Sano and get the fourth pick in next years draft, which I presume will be stronger.
 
June 01, 2009
Votes: +0

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