What is Nate McLouth worth? E-mail
Written by Pat Lackey   
Wednesday, 03 June 2009 20:45

That's an anecdotal question at this point, because Neal Huntington has set his value at Craig Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke. The question that remains: is that enough? McLouth is signed reasonably through 2011 and the Pirates didn't get Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward in this deal, so immediately, Pirate fans are going to hate it. I can feel the hateful venom pouring out of Pittsburgh as I type this, but is it justified? Should the Pirates care?

Here's what the Pirates traded: a 27-year-old centerfielder with pretty decent power and a .350 OBP. Those are measurables. His defense is pretty hotly contested among Pirate fans, but if Neal Huntington's going around quoting UZR to the press, I doubt the Pirates thought highly of him in that capacity and it's not likely that a lot of front offices did, either. He is a great base runner, but that's even harder to quantify than defense. Nate McLouth is a great player on the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he's only a good player everywhere else. PECOTA only projected him for 21 homers this year. If he drops even five homers like that projection suggests, I think to a lot of people, 2008 becomes somewhat of a fluke and McLouth's trade value drops.

Remember, too, that lots of teams have been interested in McLouth in the past six months or so. I'm guessing a lot of teams made calls to Huntington trying to suggest that McLouth was a complete fluke and he should sell while his value is still high. None of those deals took place, so that suggests (at least to me) that Huntington really likes the package he pulled in from Atlanta tonight. It continues in the direction that the deals last year took the Pirates; it immediately creates more pitching depth at the big league level with Morton and it keeps restacking a depleted minor league system with Hernandez and Locke.

If you're still not buying in to this trade, let me ask you a question. What do you think Freddy Sanchez is worth in a trade right now? And what do you think he would've been worth after his 2006 season? Remember Craig Wilson? What do you think he would've been worth in 2004? And we got who for him in 2006? Shawn Chacon. A player like McLouth, who breaks out later in his career, is always going to have diminishing value as you move away from that breakout. The Pirates got two good prospects and a third potentially useful player for him. That's not an insignificant haul, even if it doesn't include any of the Braves top prospects.

This is certainly a tough pill to swallow as a fan. It sucks to see good players come to Pittsburgh and leave before they win anything. But Huntington and Coonelly have brought a ton of good talent into the system in the past two years, and this trade tonight continues that trend. Just remember where things were when Huntington took over (Andrew McCutchen as the top prospect then Steve Pearce and Neil Walker as the next two) and think about where they are right now with McCutchen, Alvarez, Tabata, Grossman, Morris, Hernandez, Locke, a few other picks from last year, and whoever we draft this year. That's a HUGE improvement. So the Pirates won't finish .500 this year. We knew that would happen. And they'll have the worst losing streak in baseball history. We knew that would happen, too. Both of these things would've happened with McLouth. But trading him now, well, it's all part of the necessary process to stop the losing at some point in the future. As a fan of a team in the position the Pirates are in right now, I'd much rather have a GM focused on the future rather than the present.


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Comments (34)add comment

The Cobra said:

June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

JerryG said:

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I put this question up at Bucsdugout when someone commented about not getting Hansen or Heyward in this trade:

Would you want the Pirates to trade Pedro Alvarez or Brad Lincoln to get Nate McLouth?

Ultimately we weren't gonna get any top flight prospects for Nate McLouth. If they wanted Hansen or Heyward, they'd have to trade someone like CC Sabathia. There is no Sabathia on this team, no matter how much we like Nate, Freddy or Jack...
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

So Sioux me said:

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The truth reigns supreme.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

w.k. kortas said:

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To win championships, you have to have major stars. Nady, Bay, or McLouth will never fit in that category (it's very rare that you have a WS champion whose best player is not demonstrably better than Jason Bay). NH has brought players into the organization who at least have a real chance to be the type of player to lead a championship team, and I find it very hard to argue with what he has done to this point.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Carnegie Chip said:

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To all those people upset or confused by this trade, please repeat with me:

2011! 2011! 2011!!

The Pirates don't care about this year. They don't care about next year. They don't care about 16 years below .500. They don't care about your heroes.

They care about 2011. The "no names" they have now in AA will spend a year there then go to AAA in 2010. We won't see any of the results of these trades until 2011. So hold off judging until then. Also, hold off caring about this team until then. Because nobody is staying.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

ndbrian said:

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I'm shocked at some of the people in the last thread that are so opposed to this.

McClouth has had one and a half great years (plus an August). We now have the best defensive outfield. Sure we have no power, but honestly..did we really have power when we had a guy hit another 20 homers?

I have no problem with this deal, and I think most people will agree in a few years.

I love the people acting like they went to hte park to watch Nate. He's been a starting major leaguer for 1 1/2 years! And he hits about .280. Losing Jason Bay was at least 3 times more devastatting and now we have 2 starters (one of which is one of our better hitters) and 2 prospects.

Everyone just needs to relax.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

WHYGStan Belinda said:

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I'm just happy that Glavine isn't coming to the Bucs.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

JerryG said:

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This just in from an alternate universe where Littlefield is still GM:

Pirates sign Glavine to 2 year $35 million contract. Zach Duke's 1-5 6.78 ERA finally has the Pirates saying enough with that and they're bringing in Glavine to take over for Duke in the rotation. Manager jim Tracy said that this move will make the Pirates real contenders, despite their 19-33 record. Littlefield says he'll only spend $1 million on the draft this year saying "The draft just isn't that important..."
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

SteelCity G said:

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Freddie Freeman should have been in the deal, Hernandez doesnt even have a place to play behind McCutch, a lefty power hitting 1st baseman is what we need, not another speedy cf with no power, if your gonna trade our best player, start stacking other positions than ones that we already have set for the next 10(hopefully, atleast) years. I would rather have got another 20 year old prospect instead of Morton, we just got 3 of him last year in trades and how is that looking. Don't mind trading McClouth at all, but when you don'y need to trade somebody and someone comes calling, get the deal you want, not the one they want.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

MrPedriqueIfYou\'reNasty said:

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The scary thing is that if you'd thrown in a Jose Hernandez/leadership/versatility comment that would've been spot on.

Now how much better is getting two of the top ten Braves prospects, including a legit MLB top 100 OF, and a ML ready pitcher sounding after reading that?

Also, I'm sorry that I called Nate Ryan Church in the last thread. He was one of my favorites and will be missed but everyone currently on the roster is nothing more than a chess piece to be played before 2012.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Tiiimmmmmmmmmyyyyyy said:

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Really, I don't even know how I feel about this trade. I'm just stuck in a state of ambivalence. I will say that it hits harder because the timing is so unexpected. I haven't had time to prepare properly like I would have around the deadline.

Anyhow, I need some opinion. Would it be fair to question the timing of this, particularly the call up of McCutchen, in light of Wieters making his debut.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

JerryG said:

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Oh yeah, hitting coach Jose Hernandez....
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Cory said:

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The most underrated part of the trade: NATE FINALLY CUT HIS DAMN HAIR... I finally think I get to watch our star CF with a normal haircut, then we go and trade him away. bushleague

Side question. Would I be a bandwagon fan if i just acted like the Pirates didn't exist for the next two years then started watching again?
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Phil George said:

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Atlanta has a guy named Cody Johnson who leads the Carolina league in homers and was a B- to start out the year on scouts.com. I'd have loved to see him as part of the deal for the future.
But, I like the trade. I feel we got a few nice parts of the puzzle for 2012! It'll be a great story to tell when we win the pennant and make it all the sweeter!
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

bwzimmerman said:

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+1 bottom 9th 2-out single in a 8-3 game.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

MrPedriqueIfYou\'reNasty said:

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Given that Alvarez is likely our first baseman of the future and that we have Pearce in the high minors and Calvin Anderson in the low minors I don't really understand why everyone thinks that we need more first basemen so badly.

And how many times does the front office have to say that they want two CF playing in PNC before we listen to them?
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

bwzimmerman said:

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i like you... whatchoo drinkin'?
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

bwzimmerman said:

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tWWL's Baseball Tonight sez the Rangers just waived Vicente Padilla...

If Morton isn't ready...
pros? cons? yea/nay?

Padillapadillapadilla...

http://deadspin.com/5277119/vi...oids-angry
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Curry said:

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WHY ARE PEOPLE BITCHING ABOUT THIS TRADE??? I heard NH's comments on the nightly sports call and he stated that it's how it goes in small market teams. I agree with his comments.

Will the Pirates lose forever? NO.

I agree with Dan's blog and i'm behind NH's comments. POST GAZETTE BLOGGERS CAN BITCH ALL THEY WANT, BUT THIS WILL NOT BRING NATE MCLOUTH BACK.

Truth is I like the direction this management is heading.

I KNOW WHO'S WRONG THIS TIME AND IT'S NOT THE MANAGEMENT!!!
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

MrPedriqueIfYou\'reNasty said:

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Front office kool-aid, mostly.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

appealtosmail said:

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I like the deal. The cupboard was bare beyond belief and we have to keep stocking up, more, more players. Timing was right too. Nate's fun but won't look this good in a year. I sure do like reading the comments on this blog, you're all real baseball fans. At the PG, it's a bunch of people who never go to the games talking about how they'll never go to the games now.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

whoa-se tabata said:

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The substance of the trade is, as many have stated, unquantifiable until approximately 2011. (This is an unspoken advantage to the jobs in any major league front office). The question, to my mind, is procedural and simple: would this trade have been there at the deadline? I'm almost positive the answer is "yes," which has me thinking that (a) the pirates panicked, (b) the pirates intend to spend their deadline time attempting the much more difficult task of shopping Jack and Adam Laroche, (c) the FO, for all of their appropriate vision, are simply not very good at negotiating, or (d) all of the above.

Regardless, just once, I'd like to see commentary that didn't say "these are the sorts of trades the pirates need to make," and instead said "this trade is the trade the pirates needed to make."
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

whygavs said:

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I won't agree or disagree, but the Braves need outfield help NOW. If Huntington wanted this package from the Braves, he has to consider that if he turns the Braves down, they go somewhere else to get their outfield help.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Joshua said:

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No suspicion at all. It just happens to be a popular time for teams to call up rookies, because the arbitration clock doesn't start until next April for June call-ups. Everyone was expecting McCutchen to be called up right about now.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Joshua said:

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Or (e): the Pirates needed somewhere to put McCutchen right now and wanted to get maximum value out of a trade. They weren't going to get much for Nyjer Morgan to begin with. Honestly, if Nyjer had started the season the way he played in spring training, there would have been no trade, as he would have been DFA'd.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Rot in hell, David Littlefield said:

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I do not like this trade and here's why. The Braves came calling and said you can't have our top three prospects, but you can have prospects four and on. Since they were the team that initiated the deal, NH should've said "No, I'll take your top prospect, if you don't like that, bye." McClouth didn't have to be traded - he was under contract for another three years. If the Braves wanted him, it should have been at a price the Pirates wanted, not one the Braves did.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

w.k. kortas said:

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If the Pirates had any players that would command a Hanson in return, they wouldn't have to trade for Hanson. This is fair return on a player of McLouth's pedigree.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Carnegie Chip said:

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Well, I'll disagree that the deal "would've been there at the deadline."

That supposes many things:
1) Nate will put up numbers equal or better than last year and stay healthy
2) The Braves will feel they're still in the race at the deadline
3) No other team will give up on the season and offer an equal player to Atlanta for cheaper a price

You can't assume any of those three things will happen.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

RayMan said:

Cleaning House------Again
I have been a Buuco fan since 1958, played a little in the organization and now I am a Scout with the Rays. The issue I have with this trade is that Nate was a solid player, just coming into his own. Getting these 3 players may or may not help the club prosperm in the next several years.
The Pirate scouting organization has for the longest time been unable to evaluate players who's skills can equate to the big leagues. We know that they have been unwilling to spend money to draft players who can help quickly; IE Longoria, Crawford, etc. Where is Neil Walker? Where are the others drafted who never made it? they keep guys like Ian Snell in the rotation, hoping they finally "get it" Remember Kip Wells?? Move guys who don't produce and build around players who do.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

MrPedriqueIfYou\'reNasty said:

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Doesn't anyone remember the David Wright fiasco? Teams don't trade their top prospects. Ever. They're price controlled and most of them are locks to be quality MLB talents so trading them in a panic just isn't done anymore. There are no more Bagwell trades.

So there's really no point in holding your breath until you turn blue for top prospects because every team will just stop dealing with you.
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

w.k. kortas said:

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But if I can hold my breath long enough...I MIGHT BE MICHAEL PHELPS!!!
 
June 04, 2009
Votes: +0

Nate said:

Boo Braves
I am fine with the trade, except for 2 reasons: 1) My name is Nate, so I took it personally. 2) The Pirates should have a rule to never trade with the Braves. The Braves victory over Bucs in the 92 NLCS started this whole losing streak. The Braves make me sick--17 years later.
 
June 05, 2009
Votes: +0

Michael said:

Who else?
I like the trade. I sure would like to break .500 this year - but if McLouth was the difference between 81 wins and 75 wins, I'll take the trade and the 75 wins.

I vote for a post on whether we should do any additional trades. I can think of two. First, Freddy Sanchez should be in the same boat - high trade value now to a contender, but he won't be part of the Bucs playoff hopes (he is already 31). He would be a tougher loss b/c his batting title brought us something. Second, Nyger Morgan. He might not bring us much value, but he might get something. On the other hand, maybe he can help us get a .500 season, and maybe that is worth more than anything we can get in a trade.
 
June 05, 2009
Votes: +0

Rod Serling said:

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Dude, I would rather have a winning team, than a Nutting owned team.

Are you a Pirate fan, or a Nutting lover?

Because Nutting puts a loser on the field, and makes alot of money doing it.
 
June 06, 2009
Votes: +0

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