How important is Nyjer Morgan's defense? E-mail
Written by Pat Lackey   
Friday, 19 June 2009 09:38

I'm going to try a different path when answering this question than last time. Last time, I tried to address the question of whether or not Nyjer Morgan is, or could be, a good offensive player. There's no need to address that question any more. He's not. He's got a .341 OBP, a sub .700 OPS, and he's only stealing bases at a 68% clip. His walks are up a bit this year, but his batting average is down and in general, his line is pretty much in accord with what was generally expected of him coming in to 2009. His VORP is 1.7, barely above replacement level.

Morgan has, however, created an interesting argument for himself with his defense this year. Using FanGraphs' UZR, he's saved the most runs of any defender this year and he's got one of the highest UZR/150 rates of anyone in either league. He's on pace to save the Pirates somewhere in the vicinity of 25 runs in the outfield this year. A half of a season or so probably isn't enough data to draw any strong conclusions from UZR, but since Morgan's numbers are pretty similar to the ones he put up in almost 60 games last year, it's probably safe to say that Morgan is a plus-plus defender in the outfield.

The creates an interesting test for defensive metrics as the latest fad in baseball. Teams have gone with defense over offense before, but almost always in positions further to the right on the defensive spectrum; shortstop, center field, second base are the positions that most commonly give up offense for defense. To do it in left field seems to be a little crazy; Baseball Prospectus counts Morgan as about a win and a half above replacement right now using WARP, which measures defense with Fielding Runs Above Replacement (measured differently than UZR). That makes him the 100th best position player in baseball right now, out of 308 that have at least 100 PAs. That's really not good enough; you'll find a lot of corner fielders much closer to the top of the league than that (Jason Bay, Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford are all left fielders in the top 30, along with other corner outfielders like Nelson Cruz, Alex Rios, Shin-Soo Choo, Raul Ibanez, and Ichiro).

What this does is create an interesting puzzle for Huntington. Morgan's defense makes him more valuable than your typical speedy, light-hitting outfielder (Willy Taveras, Juan Pierre in most years when he doesn't hit that well), but it's still not really good enough to justify playing him in a corner position. If the Pirates do, in fact, choose to leave him there long-term (which doesn't seem likely to me, but they do seem to love a good defensive outfielder in left field and if Morgan doesn't play there, we may revisit this entire scenario with Gorkys Hernandez in two or three years' time), they're going to have to find offense from another spot on the diamond at the point in the future that they're nearing contention. Does that mean sacrificing defense at a position (shortstop, second base) that might be as important or more important to the pitchers? How does the big left field change the defensive spectrum at PNC Park?

Maybe a more pertinent question is how much offense a team with good defense and pitching needs. The Rays got a lot of attention last year for those two qualities, but they still scored 774 runs, just about dead average in the American League. Any team that starts Nyjer Morgan in left field isn't going to be average offensively, and that's a problem no matter how much defense he brings.


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Comments (22)add comment

GPT said:

...
/Thread jack

MLB is looking into Sano's age at the request of the Minnesota Twins.

/end of thread jack. You may now continue your discussion of slap-hitting Pirate outfielders.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

w.k. kortas said:

...
On a tangenitally related note...OK, very tangenitally... I thought DKs little piece on Ryan Doumit was very interesting, especially his little note in the PBC blog saying to read it carefully. If you assume

a) the Pirates are happy with Diaz and Jaramillo
b) Sanchez is being fast-tracked to PNC

and
c) there is no obvious in-house replacement for Adam LaRoche

I can't help but wonder if "d)" is that Doumit is on the block and likely gone by the deadline.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

GPT said:

...
Would Doumit have a significant trade value? To any club that's a buyer, he's an OK catcher with some pop but a vigorous sneeze away from a DL stint. To the Pirates, he's a young player under team control who will be their only source of power once LaRoche is traded.

I get trading Grabow, Sanchez or LaRoche, but I don't see where trading Doumit makes sense unless the Pirates score a young, MLB-ready 1B or top prospect. I'm dubious about the Pirates' ability to do either.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

w.k. kortas said:

...
Understand, I'm not advocating a Doumit trade; I'm just curious about DKs phrasing. I'm wondering if NH is not liking what he's hearing in terms of return for Adam L., and perhaps people are calling for Doumit.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

Ross said:

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Pat, great post here about Nyjer. I have loved watching him play and it is definitely clear that he represents a huge boost with his defense. The problem will probably resurface with Gorkys, as you mentioned, assuming he makes it up to the big club in a couple years (although I have a hunch he may be pacakaged with someone this year at the deadline for a top notch prospect or two). The key is to get the offense and power numbers from elswhere on the field (Moss, Delwyn, LaRoche's, etc. just simply do not hit for enough power, yet, at least). It will be interesting to see what transpires from all of this.

Tabata could be the biggest piece to the puzzle. Here's to hoping he stays healthy and comes through in the Big Leagues.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

Greg said:

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So what you're saying is that Nyjer should be shopped this summer? His AVG and OBP until his recent slump were both solid. He'd be worth more to a team who needs a CF than he is to us playing LF. If he can get that AVG back up to .280, I'd say he's our best trade chip.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

Garrett said:

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Agree with GPT about Doumit's value to suitors right now. After -what- three seasons of being injured in a row, I doubt anyone would give up too much for him.

Honestly, the RF idea seems solid to me. You get a plus arm in right, less chance of injury and his limited range would be no big deal so long as we have Cutch in center. Having a power-hitting catcher is nice, but I'd rather have a consistent production out of RF and a solid defensive backstop.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

whygavs said:

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I'm confused by the assertion that moving him to the outfield would keep him from getting hurt. Playing the outfield is exactly how he broke his wrist last time. The guy's just fragile; he's gonna get hurt anywhere.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

Nate said:

Pearce?
He's probably too old to be considered a prospect at this point, but Steve Pearce would at least be a solid stop-gap for Adam LaRoche once he's gone.

I doubt Doumit will be traded this year. He's been injured for a while, and this particular injury supposedly saps power, so I doubt we'd get much value out of somebody that's not a sure thing.

In the future, though? Doumit is definitely a trade piece. We've gone from having no competent catchers behind him to having a glut of ML ready catchers (but no minor league depth).
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

Nate said:

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If he doesn't like the return, he doesn't HAVE to trade LaRoche. If the return is really all that bad, resigning him as a stopgap until Alvarez is ready is probably not a terrible idea.

At any rate, if LaRoche went to free agency Huntington would be compensated. He's probably a type B free agent, which would net a supplemental pick in the draft and Steve Pearce as the Alvarez stopgap. I doubt the offers Huntington is receiving are worse than a single draft pick in a sandwich round. He'll probably pull the trigger on something, but I never expected the deal to be overwhelming anyway.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

Curtis said:

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Glad you brought up the question about the big LF in PNC Park. How much of a difference does Nyjer make on the road vs at home? Is it worth it to give him more playing time at home and bench him on the road? Of course benching him doesn't do much good on offense unless Moss remembers how to hit the ball, and that is assuming Young keeps hitting.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

Nate said:

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I definitely think Nyjer should be traded, but he's kind of making it hard for the club to do at this point. There probably isn't a market for a slightly superior version of Juan Pierre as anything but a fourth OF (which I might add, I think Nyjer would be excellent in a role of, but it's not exactly a position that clubs sell the farm for.)

A commenter on Bucs Dugout named Thunder has been tracking Morgan's line since game 10 of the season. His line? .232/.322/.298. That really kind of indicates that he had a hot start and has really regressed since then. I'm sure other GMs have taken notice of that as well.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

w.k. kortas said:

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The thing about Pearce is...the organization obviously has no faith in him whatsoever. Remember, after the Nady and Bay deals last year, there was ample opportunity to give him at-bats; there were two corner spots open, and the Bucs were soon so far out of contention they couldn't here the race rattle--but the club decided that they just had to get Nyjmo and Jason Michaels in the lineup. No matter where you stand on his value, it's pretty obvious Pearce will never have an everday role with this club.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

bwzimmerman said:

...
yep. i was at that game in AZ, and though i can't remember if it happened on a dive or against the wall, the gist is that most players don't wind up on the DL for it. i just don't trust him to stay healthy, so the "safest" option for him is 1B.

though now i have a vision of prince fielder stepping on his ankle.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

ndbrian said:

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I think we also can't overlook the fact that Nyjmo was significantly more valuable to the Buccos when we had a low range, more pop Cfer. Hence he could play Left-centerfield and cover the ground of 1 1/2 OFers.

Now that we have Usain Bolt in CF, having Nyjmo playing in front of the Notch isn't nearly as critical. In fact if you watch balls hit to the gap, they overlap a lot as opposed to earlier when Nate would still be getting there.

I definitley think it's more important (and cheaper) for the Bucs to have a defensive LFer, but maybe not one that's so much so anymore.
 
June 19, 2009
Votes: +0

Carnegie Chip said:

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Oh, wow, another 500 word post detailing why Nyjer Morgan sucks. Color me shocked.

You don't like the guy. We get it. Even when your precious sabermetrics like UZR show him to be useful. No idea why this dead horse continues to be beat.

And Doumit should be traded to the Red Sox. They need a young catcher and maybe we could pry Lars Anderson from them. He's the Lefty McThump we need since Lil Laroche has shown to be a wimpy slap hitter.
 
June 20, 2009
Votes: +0

KPatrick said:

...
I wonder if LF might be the Pirates' CF. By which I mean maybe we need our best defensive outfielder in Left. If that's the case, then a guy with a CF's offensive skill set might not be out of place there. That's not meant to suggest Nyjer has enough of that to be a starting outfielder, just that faulting him for not having a corner OF's power might not be the way to evaluate him.

(This is a really unformed thought that I could talk myself out of, but I wanted to throw it out there.)
 
June 20, 2009
Votes: +0

Nate said:

Speak of the devil...
Tweet from Rocco DeMaro: "Morgan DFA. Pearce up tomorrow. Let the speculation begin."
 
June 20, 2009
Votes: +0

Shawn test said:

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Couple of thoughts here:
1. If you think of morgan as a CF and Cutch as a LF does the avg. of the two equate to the avg of other teams? Esp if A McC. develops more power.
2. Morgan's value to a conteder may be as a Def. replacement/ Pinch runner if you are the Redsox or Yankees and you have def liabilities in the OF/ guys that can't go 1 to 3 on the bases. Morgan maybe more valuable.
3. The problem w/ Morgan's Off. seems to be that he appers to have abandoned the idea of hitting the ball on the ground. He seems to be flying out alot, even when he makes solid contact.
 
June 20, 2009
Votes: +0

GPT said:

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Lars Anderson? Maybe we should ask for Buchholz while we're at it?
 
June 20, 2009
Votes: +0

BSpar said:

Check his splits
Nyjer's splits against RHP are adequate, and I could live with them given the fact he plays good defense.

But he should never, ever, ever and I mean ever. Face another left handed pitcher, in this life or his next again.
 
June 20, 2009
Votes: +0

GrtSm said:

1B
If we were to trade Doumit for prospects - which I would really like to see, since he gets hurt as much as Ben Roethlisberger... oh wait, Ben fakes his injuries - I don't understand why we would want a 1B. We have a dude in high A-ball who is on the "fast track" and his name is Pedro Alvarez. We need pitching and middle infielders, the rest of the positions are filled nicely, assuming everyone pans out.

Now for NyjMo, I think he is a fun guy to watch, but I also feel offense is more valuable than defense. Anyways, Gorkys looks like he'll be a great player defensively, and I think he can bat around .300 at the leadoff spot.
 
June 21, 2009
Votes: +0

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