It’s hard to imagine a more distressing visual than this: the Cardinals clinch the division at PNC Park in an afternoon game in front of a partially empty stadium caused by a game scheduled on 16 hours notice. I said this yesterday and I’ll say it again right now: I don’t think this actually matters, because in a week there will be a celebration at PNC Park that directly affects whether or not the Pirates enter into the National League Division Series, whereas this Cardinal clinch has been brewing for five months now and even though the Pirates have worked valiantly to stave it off, it’s been more or less inevitable since the Pirates dropped four in a row to the Cubs and Dodgers two weeks ago.
Of course, I’d rather the Cardinals not clinch today. I’d rather the Pirates win both of these games, sweep the Reds, and somehow sneak into a division tie as the ailing Cardinals drop two of three to the awful Braves this weekend. I want a lot of things, though, and while some of them are wildly improbable, a National League Central title for the Pirates in 2015 probably has the worst odds. Baseball Prospectus says the Pirates have a 3.3% chance at the NL Central right now. That feels high to me.
Gerrit Cole’s last regular season start (probably) comes in the 1:35 game today. After scuffling (by Gerrit Cole standards) in August, Cole has been spectacular of late — in his last four starts, he’s got a 2.30 ERA and a 35/5 K/BB ratio in 27 1/3 innings. Those four starts have been against the Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, and Cubs. In other words, the Pirates lined Gerrit Cole up for the National League Gauntlet in September, and he’s responded with maybe his best stretch of the season. I’m worried about the Wild Card Game, of course, but I’m not despondent. The reason for that is Gerrit Cole. Charlie Morton starts the nightcap at 7:05. This is almost certainly Morton’s last start in 2015 and it could well be his last appearance of any sort regardless of how deep the Pirates go into the playoffs, though I suspect his stuff would play better as a long reliever than Jeff Locke’s and so he may find himself on a playoff roster at some point.
The Cardinals will start Michael Wacha first and Tyler Lyons second. It would’ve been interesting to see how the clubs juggled starters had the Pirates won the first game and given a ton of meaning to this double-header (it seems to me like Cole/Wacha and Morton/Lyons favors the Pirates more than the other configuration, though you can argue that it’d be better to start Cole in a game that he’d be more likely to win, since you’re rolling the dice with Morton no matter who he faces), but alas. At the very least, the Pirates get to see Wacha one more time before a potential NLDS showdown. Wacha has mostly kept the Pirates off the scoreboard this year, and the Cardinals have won all three of his starts against the Bucs, though the Pirates have only struck out ten times (while drawing five walks) against him in 18 2/3 innings this year. That could mean they’re on the verge of a breakout against him or it could be meaningless. This discussion will be academic if they don’t beat Arrieta next week, of course, but it’s at least something to think about today.
Anyway, 1:35 and 7:05. Keep the Cardinals from clinching in Pittsburgh, or don’t. October 7th will remain on the calendar either way.
Photo by David Banks/Getty Images
