With the Pirates slicing a bit into the Cubs’ NL Central lead this week as we approach the annual “Pirates are good by” date (it’s May 21st, but I think they may have started a few days early this year), all of everyone’s focus has shifted to the Pirates’ passel of Triple-A pitching and when they might show up in Pittsburgh. In particular, Pirate fans are focused on the two usual suspects (Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow) as well as one newish name, Chad Kuhl.
My own personal hunch, based on observations, things the Pirates say, and a few other things, is that the Pirates think that Taillon is slightly further along than Glasnow, and that Kuhl is exciting and that his increased velocity is a good sign, but he’s been dominating for less than a year in total and I’d like to watch him a bit more. Tim Williams watched all three pitchers pitch this week and concluded more or less what I had already guessed (though you should read Tim’s article, because his conclusions are based on way more first-hand evidence than my own second-hand speculations); Taillon is ready, Glasnow is close to ready but still with rough edges (his changeup, his command, and from what I can tell I think he’s probably still got problems holding runners), and Kuhl is moving quickly up the ladder but still not completely ready.
Even if you assume Glasnow and Taillon are equally ready at this point, there are good reasons not to replace 40% of your rotation with unproven rookies all at once, no matter how talented those rookies are. My hunch is that the Pirates introduce them one at a time with a decent amount of space between them. What that means is that the Pirates will probably be calling one guy up in the next few weeks here.
My guess is that Taillon is the guy. He pitched yesterday, and Locke pitched yesterday. I tried to sort this all out with David Todd and John Dreker on Twitter earlier this week, and John noticed that Taillon and Locke are both slated for a start on/around June 9th (the Indians have a double-header that day, which complicates it), assuming both the Pirates and the Indy rotations hold serve. The Pirates play on June 8th against the Mets in PNC Park, on June 9th in Colorado against the Rockies, and on June 10th against the Cardinals in PNC Park. The Pirates have no off-days between their open days on May 23rd and June 13th. It seems to me that it’s a safe bet that Taillon gets that June 10th start, and then either replaces Locke or Nicasio (using the open date on the 13th as a chance to re-shuffle, depending on how Locke, Nicasio, and probably Wilfredo Boscan pitch between now and then) from that point going forward. Glasnow comes into the conversation around the All-Star Break. Kuhl is likely a “break glass in case of” pitcher this year, unless Niese really has trouble turning himself around going forward.
It is annoying to be this close and to think that Taillon is ready, but that we still have to wait to see him. Like you, I’m currently wondering how the NL Central would look if Taillon had come up in early May when Jose Berrios and Sean Manaea did, especially if doing so would’ve put him in a game or two against the Cubs. Given the payroll certainty the Pirates have at this point and the money coming off the books next year, I question the value of money saved by the super-two dance vs. the wins possibly left on the table for a contending team. The problem now is that super-two is an entirely different equation, because we’re so close to the line in the sand. If we assume June 10th is the date for Taillon, he makes three starts between now and then for Indianapolis that could be made with the Pirates. If you assume the extra year of arbitration costs in the $10-15 million range in the long run, you’re now talking $3-$5 million per start. If we’re talking seven starts, which is about what Berrios will have by that point, then maybe it’s a conversation. It’s hard to justify three, though. Even if the Pirates are re-thinking their super-two strategy in light of how this year is going, we’re not likely to see changes before next year.
One way or another, it’s only a few turns of the rotation before help arrives. Before that Mets series, they play the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Marlins, and Angels. There should be plenty of wins in those games for the Pirates, no matter who’s on the mound.
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