At any point in the early season, I try to keep two main goals in mind: try not to over-react to a small-sample size result, but to try and find things inside of those small sample sizes that might be meaningful going forwards. So, for example, Juan Nicasio’s line tonight was great, but it’s not hugely important. He threw six innings, he struck out seven, he didn’t walk anyone, he gave up one run, and only allowed two hits. That’s impressive, but it doesn’t really answer long-term questions about his control or his durability.
What I can say, though, is that my goodness is his stuff impressive. His fastball averaged 96 and topped out at almost 100. It diminished a bit as the game went on, which is worth monitoring, but he still hit 96 on what looks like his 66th pitch, which came in the fifth inning. His slider looked sharp, too. If he can really survive with two pitches (he only threw five changeups tonight), how he adjusts when hitters adjust, if he has lefty problems, how he holds up for a long stretch as a big league starter, none of those questions can have answers right now. All we can do tonight is ask if he pitched well (obviously) and if his stuff looked good enough to support that gaudy box score (it did).
The same goes for the lineup. Beating Mike Leake for the first time in a million years was nice, but the best part of the game from a wider view was the 42-pitch (!) first inning that they forced Leake into. Leake actually recorded outs on two of the first three batters, but John Jaso flew out on the fifth pitch he saw, Andrew McCutchen singled on the seventh of his at-bat, and David Freese lined out on the eighth of his. That’s a runner on first, two outs, and at least a 20-pitch inning for Leake. As it turned out, the Pirates got Leake to throw even more than that, when Starling Marte singled for his first hit of the year, Francisco Cervelli worked a nine pitch walk, and Gregory Polanco drew a six pitch walk before Josh Harrison ripped a line drive back up the middle and right into Leake’s glove. There was a lot of consternation over the winter about how the absence of Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez’s pop would affect the Pirates offense, but through three games I think we have a really good idea of how this will work: the Pirates’ lineup is going to wear pitchers out.
It all finally manifested in the fifth tonight, when Jaso lead off with a Little League home run (a Stephen Piscotty-aided triple paired with a Kolton Wong throwing error), Freese singled with one out, Marte singled again, and Cervelli doubled everyone home on Leake’s 99th pitch. With the way Nicasio was pitching, that more or less ended the game right there, although a few bullpen hiccups from Arquimedes Caminero (in his second inning of work) and Cory Luebke (in his first appearance since 2012) made things almost interesting.
Just a few other observations: Caminero threw a pitch that ROOT showed as 102 on the TV gun, and PitchFX shows as 102.8. His slider was insane tonight, hitting 94-96 and basically just turning left on a dime, sometimes seeming like it wasn’t actually dropping at all. I have no clue how you’d go about hitting him with the way he’s throwing the ball this week. Luebke also got to 96+, which is pretty awesome to see for a guy that’s had two Tommy John surgeries since his last big league appearance, which came before anyone had any idea it was possible for the Pirates to be good. His command wasn’t great, but it was a huge night for him and I’m sure the Pirates will be willing to work with a lefty that can pop the glove like that. And Polanco drew three walks tonight. He’s had a bunch of good at-bats and hit a lot of baseballs very hard this week. It’s three games, but it’s really hard to not be very encouraged by his start to 2016.
Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images
