It’s relatively easy to figure out how the season is going for 80% of the rotation. Gerrit Cole has been fantastic, and he’s closer than ever to finally breaking out and living up to that “1-1” tag the Pirates put on him four years ago. AJ Burnett is revitalized with the Pirates, throwing strikes and getting ground balls again, even if his ERA is probably coming back to earth at some point. Jeff Locke and Vance Worley are bad, and as soon as the Pirates scrape together better options, both of them will be out of the rotation (Worley first, as Charlie Morton’s last rehab start is today).
In the middle of that group is Francisco Liriano, and I admit that I’ve had a tough time putting a finger on what I think of his performance thus far in 2015. Obviously he doesn’t belong with Locke and Worley at the bottom; I’m just having a hard time telling if he’s off to an excellent start and headed for a phenomenal year like he had in 2013, or if he’s been a little uneven and he’s about to launch into a frustrating summer like we saw from him in much of 2014.
Liriano’s composite numbers look pretty solid, which is one of the weird things about the early part of his season to me. He’s got that nice-looking 2.96 ERA, he’s striking out more hitters than he has in either of his other years as a Pirate (9.9/9 innings, 27.6% of hitters), and his walks are in line with 2013 more than 2014 (3.7/9 innings, 10.5%). His groundball rate isn’t quite as low as it’s been in the past (45% vs. 50.5% and 54.5% in his first two Pirate years) and that’s lead to more home runs, so his FIP isn’t great (3.41), though his slightly higher-than-normal HR/FB% means that his xFIP is awfully close to his ERA (3.19).
My uneasiness about Liriano comes from his start-to-start lines, though. Liriano’s first to starts were great: he threw 13 innings, struck out 14, walked four, and only gave up three runs (earned or otherwise) despite two of the six total hits he allowed leaving the park. Liriano’s third start against the Cubs wasn’t bad, but it was the sort of Francisco Liriano that’s been frustrating fans since about 2004. He had some early control issues and while he overcame them, he was incredibly inefficient, needing 97 pitches to get through five innings, then turning the ball over to a bullpen that literally gave up at least one run in each of the game’s final four innings in what is now somehow the second most ridiculous loss to the Cubs that the Pirates have had this year. His next start took that same trope to an extreme: he walked four hitters in the first three innings, then buckled down a bit, then ran out of gas in the seventh and started walking hitters again. His lack of control didn’t matter because the Pirates were playing the Diamondbacks; they didn’t manage to score a run, despite being handed seven baserunners by Pirate pitching.
From there, you likely remember Liriano’s last three starts pretty clearly. He was excellent against the Cardinals the first time he saw them, taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning and pitching eight one-run innings, holding the Cards to three hits and three walks, while striking out four. His next start against the Cardinals was not good; he gave up two early home runs to Jhonny Peralta and Matt Holliday, then was left in the game to start the seventh inning, where he served up a double, a passed ball, and a single, before giving way to Arquimedes Caminero to allow another three-run homer to Kolton Wong. His last start against the Phillies was OK on its face, except that after being handed a 2-0 lead against Cole Hamels and a minor league offense, he immediately served up three runs on to the Phillies in the bottom of the fifth inning, resulting in the Pirate loss that kicked off this recent four-game losing streak.
I’m curious about this, because Liriano has had two different modes in his Pirate career. When he’s on, the way he was in his last 14 starts after coming off of the DL last year, he’s as good as pretty much any pitcher in baseball. When he’s not, the way he was before his injury last year, he’s average-at-best. You could break down his 2013 the same way; he was incredible up until August, and then he finished the year pretty poorly, those two playoff starts aside. This year, because of the unusually high homer rate, he’s been sort of in between. The Pirates don’t really have the luxury to be able to mess around with the bad Francisco Liriano right now; Locke and Worley’s struggles, coupled with Brandon Cumpton’s Tommy John surgery and Nick Kingham’s pending elbow injury, leaves them with a paper-thin rotation and not a ton of room for error with their starting pitchers. Think about this, for example: how different does last week look if Liriano pitches well enough to hold on to that 2-1 lead he was handed last Wednesday? The Pirates take the series from the Phillies, they’re sitting at .500 today, they’re within six of the Cardinals and 2 1/2 of the Cubs. Not ideal, of course, and they still lose that series to the Cubs, but it somehow feels a little rosier than splitting with the Phillies did.
I just can’t figure out whether Liriano’s about to reel off a great run or a bad one. His fastball velocity, which we used as a marker of struggles last year, is slightly down again this year, but it’s also been very consistent and not hugely out of line with where he ended last year (last year his velocity started way down before stabilizing maybe slightly above where it is now). He’s using his fastball a little more and his changeup a little less than he normally has as a Pirate, but it’s hard to say whether that’s a real change for him or if it’s based on having four of his seven starts come against the Reds and Cardinals, thus skewing the numbers.
Liriano’s a bit of a fulcrum here, though: there’s no help coming for the top of this rotation in 2015. The Pirates can move guys in an out of the back of the rotation (Worley, Locke, Morton, Sadler, Richard), but they’re going to be back of the rotation guys. The top of the rotation is only going to be as good as Cole, Liriano, and Burnett make it. Liriano hasn’t been bad to this point this year, but his last few starts haven’t been as good as Francisco Liriano can be. Hopefully things start to swing in a slightly better direction tonight.
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