I have to admit, I was a little surprised over the weekend when the Pirates announced Charlie Morton would be making a start against the Boston Red Sox tonight. Morton’s whole season has been up-and-down as he’s dealt with his sports hernia, but he was in the midst of a really bad stretch before said hernia landed him on the disabled list. In 39 innings over his last seven starts, he had a 6.00 ERA that was fueled by a 26:15 K:BB ratio and a .375 OBP against in that span. Since going on the disabled list, there’s been almost no good news about his injury. The last update I can find was from about ten days ago, when he told reporters that “pitching” was what was aggravating the injury. Given that that soundbite was from September 6th, I figured Morton’s season was over. A week later, the Pirates announced his start for tonight.
It’s not at all hard to see how the injury has been affecting Morton. In that link above he says that the first sign of the hernia came on June 2nd, which gives us a nice and easy way to break his season into monthly splits. In April and May, his four-seam fastball averaged more than 93 mph and his sinker averaged between 92 and 93. Since then, both pitches have dropped to the 91-92 mph range. The sample sizes are small, but he’s lost vertical and horizontal movement on most of his pitches since June, too. In other words, the PitchFX tells us that we can take the Pirates and Morton at face value when they say that Morton’s been pitching hurt since June and it was affecting his effectiveness. The evidence is all there in the numbers.
So if he was ineffective due to the injury before going on the shelf and he hasn’t made much progress since then, what gives? As far as I can tell, 93.7’s Dan Zangrilli has probably come up with the best hypothesis: the Red Sox struggle with two-seamers and curveballs (Morton’s best pitches) while crushing cutters (Vance Worley’s best pitch). If the Pirates have done anything to help Morton manage his discomfort even a little while pitching (and they may have; he certainly made some solid starts since the injury and pitchers have been known to pitch through sports hernias in the past), this is a spot where it makes sense to give him a shot.
There are larger ramifications here. Vance Worley has not been very good over the last month. In his last six starts he’s been roughed up fairly regularly to the tune of a .304/.359/.471 line and his control has started to waver a bit with 12 walks in his last 31 innings after walking just ten in his first 62 2/3. Jeff Locke has been unpredictable from second to second with his own command. As it stands right now, the Pirates have a fairly well-set first three in their rotation with Liriano, Cole, and Volquez, but should they find themselves in a best-of-seven series at any point in the next six weeks, they’re going to need a fourth starter. Given how uneven Worley’s been, I don’t see any harm in giving Morton a start or two and seeing if he’s capable of being that pitcher, should the Pirates need him. It’s also worth wondering if Morton could be a better long-reliever than Brandon Cumpton or Jeanmar Gomez if he can’t throw long innings like a starter. These are questions worth asking and answering in September.
There is one other question that this situation has presented, though it’s less directly related to Morton. I had kind of thought that between Morton and the off-day yesterday, the Pirates might take the opportunity to reshuffle their rotation to get things better in-line for the impending wild card game. It’s also been pointed out in a few places that Francisco Liriano could’ve been moved up to tonight’s start on regular rest, which would line him up to also start on Sunday against the Brewers. Instead, it looks like the Pirates are going to just swap Morton for Worley and move on with their regularly scheduled rotation for now. That pits Liriano and Cole against the Red Sox after Morton, then Locke, Volquez, and Morton/Worley against the Brewers this weekend. If you continue through to the end of the season, then Liriano, Cole, Locke, and Volquez face the Braves and the season closes with Morton/Worley, Liriano, and Cole against the Reds in Cincinnati. That would obviously not be optimal, as it’d leave both Liriano and Cole unavailable to start a potential wild card game on Wednesday of the next week.
Obviously I’m not inside of Clint Hurdle’s head, but I have a few suspicions as to why the Pirates haven’t altered the rotation quite yet. The first is simply this: Liriano has had quite a few nagging health issues this year, and the Pirates may prefer to give him his last extra day of rest. Obviously there’s value in having him start against the Brewers this weekend, but there’s also value in having him start against the punchless Braves on Monday. The Brewers series this weekend is likely to be hugely important, but it’s also unlikely that Sunday will be a must-win scenario for the Pirates (subject to what happens over the next five days, of course). As things line up now, both Cole and Liriano get an extra day of rest from yesterday’s off-day, which can’t be a bad thing, and they’re also lined up to make three more starts, should the Pirates need those three starts. There’s no reason to alter the rotation now when you can’t be sure if you’ll need Liriano and/or Cole to start against the Reds on that last weekend of the year. If the Pirates take care of business this week and early next, it shouldn’t be a huge problem to use Morton/Worley and Brandon Cumpton to get Liriano or Cole lined up for a potential Wild Card Game on October 1st.
